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截至3月3日當(dāng)周亞洲LNG現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌
點(diǎn)擊次數(shù)：709 發(fā)表時(shí)間：2023-3-9
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中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)
中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)3月3日?qǐng)?bào)道，亞洲現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣(LNG)價(jià)格本周繼續(xù)下跌，跌至2021年7月以來(lái)的最低水平，由于需求不溫不火，預(yù)計(jì)這種情況將持續(xù)到3月底。
據(jù)業(yè)內(nèi)人士估計(jì)，4月交付東北亞的LNG均價(jià)為每百萬(wàn)英熱單位14.50美元，較前一周下降0.50美元，或2.3%。
今年迄今為止，價(jià)格已下跌超過(guò)48%，較2022年8月的峰值70.50美元每百萬(wàn)英熱單位下跌約79%。
Trident LNG全球交易主管托比·科普森(Toby Copson)表示，最近的價(jià)格鼓勵(lì)了南亞的買(mǎi)家。
他補(bǔ)充道：“盡管市場(chǎng)疲軟依然明顯，但很可能需要一段長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的低谷期才能吸引國(guó)有企業(yè)和二三級(jí)市場(chǎng)（公司）回歸。我認(rèn)為我們還沒(méi)有看到觸發(fā)價(jià)格，從而使國(guó)內(nèi)套利有利可圖。”
研究咨詢(xún)公司Energy Aspects的液化天然氣市場(chǎng)分析師Leo Kabouche表示，由于北美買(mǎi)家缺乏現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)，加上歐洲天然氣庫(kù)存高企，以及美國(guó)自由港液化天然氣設(shè)施因火災(zāi)中斷八個(gè)月后部分重啟，目前液化天然氣價(jià)格上漲有限。
Kabouche稱(chēng)，日本和韓國(guó)的供暖日數(shù)(用來(lái)估計(jì)供暖需求的一種指標(biāo))同比下降了15%，預(yù)計(jì)3月的前兩周也比正常情況要溫和16%左右。
據(jù)Tullett Prebon經(jīng)紀(jì)公司液化天然氣亞洲業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人托比亞斯·戴維斯（Tobias Davis）表示，在歐洲，天然氣價(jià)格已觸及2021年8月以來(lái)的最高水平，液化天然氣貨物繼續(xù)運(yùn)往歐洲大陸，經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)仍?xún)A向于大西洋交付，而非遠(yuǎn)東交付。溫暖的天氣、強(qiáng)勁的風(fēng)力發(fā)電和良好的儲(chǔ)存導(dǎo)致的需求下降繼續(xù)有助于控制價(jià)格，冬季后儲(chǔ)存水平的預(yù)測(cè)為55%，緩解了市場(chǎng)壓力。
他還表示，4月份的JKM/TTF地域價(jià)差（衡量向亞洲和歐洲輸送液化天然氣的經(jīng)濟(jì)性）已從2月底的-1.00美元每百萬(wàn)英熱單位上升至3月初的-0.35美元每百萬(wàn)英熱單位，這是一個(gè)可喜的逆轉(zhuǎn)，但對(duì)任何返回亞洲的貨物流來(lái)說(shuō)，這仍然是一個(gè)不利的數(shù)字。
JKM是亞洲現(xiàn)貨貨物的液化天然氣基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格評(píng)估。
根據(jù)液化天然氣全球總監(jiān)Ciaran Roe的說(shuō)法，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球大宗商品洞察公司(S&P Global Commodity Insights) 3月2日對(duì)3月份交貨的歐洲西北部LNG Marker (NWM)每日基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格進(jìn)行了評(píng)估，以船上交貨(DES)為基礎(chǔ)，價(jià)格為12.814美元每百萬(wàn)英熱單位，比荷蘭天然氣TTF樞紐4月份的天然氣價(jià)格低了1.712美元每百萬(wàn)英熱單位。
Spark Commodities評(píng)估西北歐洲LNG價(jià)格為13.098美元每百萬(wàn)英熱單位，比4月份TTF天然氣價(jià)格低1.460美元每百萬(wàn)英熱單位。
Spark Commodities分析師Eleni Balomenou表示，本周液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定，周五大西洋價(jià)為59250美元/天，太平洋價(jià)為81000美元/天。
郝芬 譯自 天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Asian spot LNG prices continue to decrease
Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices continued their downtrend this week, hitting the lowest level since July 2021, due to tepid demand which is expected to last until the end of March.
The average LNG price for April delivery into northeast Asiawas $14.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), industry sources estimated, down $0.50, or 2.3%, from the previous week, industry sources estimated.
Prices have fallen more than 48% year-to-date and around 79% from the August 2022 peak at $70.50/mmBtu.
"Recent prices have encouraged South Asian buyers. " said Toby Copson, global head of trading at Trident LNG.
"While market weakness is still evident, it's likely going to take a prolonged period of lows to entice the state-owned enterprises and tier 2 and 3s (players) back. I don't think we've seen the trigger price yet to make the domestic arbitrage profitable," he added.
Leo Kabouche, LNG market analyst at research consultancy Energy Aspects said that an upside to LNG prices is currently limited due to North Asian buyers' absence from spot market, combined with high gas inventories in Europe and the partial restart of U.S. Freeport LNG facility following an eight month-outage caused by a fire.
Kabouche said that heating degree days - a measure used to estimate heating demand - were 15% down on an annual basis Japan and South Korea, with the first two weeks of March are also forecast to be around 16% milder than normal.
In Europe, gas prices have touched levels not seen since August 2021 and LNG cargoes continue to head to the continent with economics still favouring Atlantic deliveries over the Far East, according to said Tobias Davis, head of LNG Asia at brokerage Tullett Prebon.
"A lower demand profile led by warm weather, strong wind power generation and healthy storage continues to help containing prices and forecasts of post winter storage levels of 55% are allaying any market stress," Davis said.
He also said that the April JKM/TTF basin spread- which measures the economics for delivering LNG to Asia versus Europe- has strengthened from $-1.00/mmBtu at end of February to -$0.35/mmBtu in early March, a welcome reversal but still not beneficial numbers for any cargo flows back to Asia.
JKM is the LNG benchmark price assessment for spot physical cargoes in Asia.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily north-west Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in March on ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.814/mmBtu on March 2, a discount of $1.712/mmBtu to the April gas price at the Dutch gas TTF hub, according to Ciaran Roe, global director of LNG.
Spark Commodities assessed the Northwest Europe LNG price at $13.098/mmBtu, a discount of $1.460/mmBtu to the April TTF gas prices.
LNG spot freight rates were steady this week, with Atlantic at $59,250/day on Friday and Pacific rates at $81,000/day, according to Eleni Balomenou, analyst at Spark Commodities.